Weaker Upward Pull From Treasury Market Yields

On Wednesday, Treasury yields in the secondary market again showed signs of stability. Figure 1 reports the latest auction yields for respective maturity class, compared with market yields from Wednesday (today) and Tuesday (last day):

Table 1

Source: U.S. Treasury

The secondary market no longer exercises the same pull on auction yields as they have for the past several weeks. In the case of the 3-year note, which was auctioned on Tuesday, the auction yield is actually higher than the latest market yield. 

Only one maturity class exhibits significantly higher market yields than auction yields: the 30-year bond. That is likely to change: we predict the median auction yield for the 30-year to exceed 4.1 percent at Thursday's auction.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.