U.S. Fiscal Forecast Weekly Update

Here is our weekly update, where we point to the role that the inverted yield curve plays in signaling a fiscal crisis:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/fiscal-forecast-76851540

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.