Treasury Auctions Monday Feb. 27

Monday's auctions:

13-week: Tender $161.76bn; Accept $66.19bn; T/A=2.44; Median yield 4.69 percent.

Maturing batch: $60.9bn at 4.22 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $534m

SOMA sales equal to 9.36 percent of accepted volume.

26-week: Tender $139.12bn; Accept $52.96bn; T/A=2.63; Median yield 4.9 percent.

Maturing batch: $47.1bn at 3.2 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $1.088bn

SOMA sales equal to 9.36 percent of accepted volume.

Total annualized debt-cost mark up for these two auctions: $1.62bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.39 percent

Treasury Auctions Thursday Feb. 23

Thursday's auctions:

4-week: Tender $198.89bn; Accept $76.3bn; T/A=2.61; Median yield 4.45 percent.

Maturing batch: $75.92bn at 4.43 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $32m

SOMA sales equal to 1.71 percent of accepted volume.

8-week: Tender $159.36bn; Accept $61.04bn; T/A=2.61; Median yield 4.615 percent.

Maturing batch: $45.94bn at 4.14 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $475m

SOMA sales equal to 1.71 percent of accepted volume.

7-year: Tender $95.01bn; Accept $42.95bn; T/A=2.21; Median yield 3.972 percent.

Maturing batch: $37.4bn at 1.553 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.141bn 

SOMA sales equal to 18.5 percent of accepted volume.

Total annualized debt-cost mark up for these two auctions: $1.65bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.39 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Wednesday Feb. 22

Wednesday's auctions:

17-week: Tender $106.37bn; Accept $36.63bn; T/A=2.90; Median yield 4.78 percent.

Maturing batch: $34.1bn at 4.15 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $336m

SOMA sales equal to 1.71 percent of accepted volume.

5-year: Tender $116.52bn; Accept $52.77bn; T/A=2.21; Median yield 4.03 percent.

Maturing batch: $43.5bn at 2.617 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $988m 

SOMA sales equal to 18.5 percent of accepted volume.

Total annualized debt-cost mark up for these two auctions: $1.32bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.38 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Tuesday Feb. 21

 There were no Treasury auctions on Monday.

Tuesday's auctions:

13-week: Tender $169.2bn; Accept $66.13bn; T/A=2.56; Median yield 4.65 percent.

Maturing batch: $60.3bn at 4.16 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $567m

26-week: Tender $134.96bn; Accept $52.9bn; T/A=2.55; Median yield 4.87 percent.

Maturing batch: $46.8bn at 3.08 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $1.135bn

52-week: Tender $101.57bn; Accept $37.47bn; T/A=2.71; Median yield 4.75 percent.

Maturing batch: $35.3bn at 1.1 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $1.392bn

2-year: Tender $119.31bn; Accept $51.54bn; T/A=2.31; Median yield 4.61 percent.

Maturing batch: $73bn at 0.098 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $2.304bn

SOMA sales in all auctions equal to 9.27 percent of accepted volume.

Total estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.37 percent.

Treasury Auctions Wednesday Feb. 15

There were no Treasury auctions on Tuesday.

Wednesday's auctions:

17-week: Tender $106.28bn; Accept $36.71bn; T/A=2.90; Median yield 4.74 percent.

Maturing batch (first under this maturity): $34bn at 4.1 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $346m

SOMA sales equal to 1.94 percent of accepted volume.

20-year: Tender $41.52bn; Accept $18.41bn; T/A=2.26; Median yield 3.9 percent.

Maturing batch not available due to Treasury database limitations.

SOMA sales equal to 18.5 percent of accepted volume.

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.34 percent.

The yield curve as of January 15, compared two months back:

Source: U.S. Treasury

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.   

Treasury Auctions Monday Feb. 13

Monday's auctions:

13-week: Tender $163.63bn; Accept $67.55bn; T/A=2.42; Median yield 4.61 percent.

Maturing batch: $64.8bn at 4.11 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $451m

26-week: Tender $127.99bn; Accept $54.04bn; T/A=2.37; Median yield 4.79 percent.

Maturing batch: $47.8bn at 2.99 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.159bn 

SOMA sales equal to 11.7 percent of accepted volume for both maturities.

Total annualized debt-cost mark up for 13- and 26-week bills: $1.61bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.34 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Thursday Feb. 9

Thursday's auctions:

4-week: Tender $197.98bn; Accept $75.99bn; T/A=2.61; Median yield 4.45 percent.

Maturing batch: $61.04bn at 4.26 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark-up: $781m

8-week: Tender $139.99bn; Accept $60.79bn; T/A=2.30; Median yield 4.55 percent.

Maturing batch: $46.5bn at 3.91 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $555m 

30-year: Tender $55.39bn; Accept $29.21bn; T/A=1.90; Median yield 3.572 percent.

No maturing batch on record.

SOMA sales: $8.206bn, 28.1 percent of accepted volume. SOMA-adjusted T/A=2.64

Total annualized debt-cost mark up for 4- and 8-week bills: $1.636bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.33 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Wednesday Feb. 8

Wednesday's auction:

17-week: Tender $93.69bn; Accept $36.57bn; T/A=2.57; Median yield 4.63 percent.

No maturing batch.

10-year: Tender $106.62bn; Accept $48.68bn; T/A=2.19; Median yield 3.55 percent.

Maturing batch: $24bn at 2.01 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.246bn 

Total annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.246bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.33 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Tuesday Feb. 7

Tuesday's auction:

3-year: Tender $108.94bn; Accept $55.63bn; T/A=1.96; Median yield 3.989 percent.

Maturing batch: $54.9bn at 1.364 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.47bn 

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.32 percent

--

We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Monday Feb. 6

Monday's auction:

13-week: Tender $168.05bn; Accept $66.61bn; T/A=2.52; Median yield 4.55 percent.

Maturing batch: $63.9bn at 4.065 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $433m 

26-week: Tender $131.51bn; Accept $53.29bn; T/A=2.47; Median yield 4.69 percent.

Maturing batch: $47bn at 2.995 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.092bn 

Total annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.525bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.32 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Never Bark At the Big Dog...

...The Big Dog Is Always Right.

Yes, folks! Once again my forecast has beaten the economic establishment. 

On December 2, I predicted that the annual cost of the U.S. government debt will exceed $1 trillion during the 2023 fiscal year.

Now, two months later, the St. Louis Fed reports that the cost of the debt reached $850 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022:

Make sure to catch our weekly podcast, which gives more predictions about the economy:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/fiscal-forecast-78158853

Have a good weekend!

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Thursday Feb. 2

Thursday's auction:

4-week: Tender $186.57bn; Accept $76.15bn; T/A=2.45; Median yield 4.41 percent.

Maturing batch: $46.14bn at 4.00 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.513bn 

8-week: Tender $154.44bn; Accept $60.92bn; T/A=2.54; Median yield 4.45 percent.

Maturing batch: $46.5bn at 3.91 percent. Estimated annualized debt-cost mark up: $540m 

Total annualized debt-cost mark up: $2.053bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.31 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Wednesday Feb. 1

There were no auctions on Tuesday Jan. 31.

Wednesday's auction:

17-week: Tender $103.64bn; Accept $36.55bn; T/A=2.84; Median yield 4.57 percent.

There was no maturing batch, due to the 17-week sales starting 16 weeks ago.

Total annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.67bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.31 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.