Treasury Auctions Monday Jan. 30

 Monday's auctions:

13-week: Tender $156.7bn; Accept $68.54bn; T/A=2.29; Median yield 4.55 percent.

Maturing batch: $65.8bn at 4.02 percent. Annualized debt-cost mark up: $473m

26-week: Tender $147.42bn; Accept $54.84bn; T/A=2.69; Median yield 4.64 percent.  

Maturing batch: $48.6bn at 2.825 percent. Annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.172bn

Total annualized mark up: $1.645bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.3 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Jan 26

Thursday's auctions:

4-week: Tender $195.11bn; Accept $75.92bn; T/A=2.57; Median yield 4.43 percent.

Maturing batch: $45.94bn at 3.65 percent. Annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.686bn

8-week: Tender $154.64bn; Accept $60.74bn; T/A=2.55; Median yield 4.48 percent.  

Maturing batch: $46.2bn at 4.05 percent. Annualized debt-cost mark up: $430m

7-year: Tender $94.17bn; Accept $35bn; T/A=2.69; Median yield 3.457 percent.  

Maturing batch: $29.5bn at 1.72 percent. Annualized debt-cost mark up: $703m

Total mark up: $2.8bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.3 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Auctions Jan 25

Wednesday's auctions:

17-week: Tender $104.81bn; Accept $36.44bn; T/A=2.88; Median yield 4.57 percent.

No maturing batch. Annualized debt-cost mark up: $1.665bn

5-year: Tender $113.4bn; Accept $43bn; T/A=2.64; Median yield 3.464 percent.  

Maturing batch: $39.4bn at 0.932 percent. Annualized debt-cost mark up: $557m

Total mark up: $2.2bn

Estimated average interest on debt: 2.29 percent

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Inverted Yield Curve Steepens

Yesterday the Treasury sold $66.42 billion worth of 13-week bills. With $167.13 billion tendered, the T/A landed at 2.52. The auction produced a median yield of 4.54.

At the 26-week auction, the Treasury received $137.45 billion in tender offers for $53.13 billion accepted (T/A=2.59). 

Today, Tuesday, the Treasury turned its attention to the 52-week bill and the 2-year note. Under the former, investors tendered $101.23 billion for $37.64 billion accepted. The T/A of 2.69 was a drop from last month's 2.98 but pretty much in line with November, October, and September. The median yield was 4.42 percent. 

 Selling $42 billion under the 2-year maturity, the Treasury received $123.65 billion in tender (T/A=2.94), and a yield of 4,1 percent.

Today's auctions added $3.09 billion to the annual cost of the debt. Yesterday's auctions contributed an annualized $1.62 billion, adding up to an annualized $4.71 billion. 

The sharp rise in today's debt cost originates in a heavy rollover-based increase in the interest rate:

The maturing $37.4 billion batch of 52-week bills yielded 0.61 percent;

The maturing $66.8 billion batch of 2-year notes yielded 0.11 percent. 

The $1.655 billion rise in debt cost from the 2-year auction came despite the fact that the Treasury sold a new batch that was $24.8 billion smaller than the maturing one. Since the one-year auction largely maintained the debt under that maturity—the new batch was $240 million bigger than the maturing one—its $1.44 billion addition to the debt cost was purely the result of higher interest rates.

As of Tuesday January 24, the estimated average interest on the federal debt is 2.28 percent, up from 1.87 percent on October 1 last year, the start of the current fiscal year.

The inverted yield curve is becoming more pronounced. Figure 1 reports a longer comparison including January 24, December 23, and November 25:

Figure 1

Source: U.S. Treasury

Despite the rising cost of short-term debt, the Treasury continues to increase debt under short maturities, adding $5.33 billion under the 26-week bill. Simultaneously, it drops sales under longer maturities: the 2-year auction sold almost 40 percent less debt than the maturing batch. 

We will discuss this trend again in our weekly podcast on Friday.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

U.S. Fiscal Forecast Weekly Update

 Here is our weekly update:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/fiscal-forecast-77481668

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Doubles Down on Short-Term Debt

With its auctions on Thursday, the Treasury doubled down on its policy to shift more and more of the federal debt over to short-term bills. The 4-week auction sold $71.13 billion in debt, for which investors tendered $169.72 billion. This resulted in a T/A of 2.39, the lowest in at least three months. 

Since the median yield sprang up to 4.4 percent, the highest in at least three months, it is fair to conclude that the market is saturated when it comes to the shortest-maturity instrument of U.S. debt. This observation is reinforced by a jump in the 4-week bill yield on the secondary market, from 4.59 percent yesterday to 4.69 percent today.

A similar but less pronounced trend is underway in 8-week bills. The $60.97 billion auctioned off by the Treasury was the highest number in at least four months; the tendered $152.88 billion resulted in a T/A of 2.51, an average rate for this maturity class. However, the yield climbed from last week's 4.42 percent to 4.48, suggesting modest enthusiasm among investors. 

The secondary-market yield rose here as well, from 4.62 percent to 4.66. 

In total, Treasury bills, which cover the maturity span from four weeks to a year, now account for an estimated 17.16 percent of total U.S. debt. This is more than two percentage points more than at the October 1 start of the 2023 fiscal year.

The high volumes sold under the 4- and 8-week maturity classes, together with their higher yields, helped push the estimated average interest rate on the U.S. debt up to 2.26 percent.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Short Term Debt Breaks Record Barrier

 After Wednesday's Treasury auctions, the shortest-maturity securities, a.k.a., bills, now account for an estimated 17 percent of total debt. This is up from 15.1 percent at the beginning of the fiscal year. The latest rise in this share is in part due to the latest auction of 17-week bills, which on Wednesday sold  $36.58 billion. Since there is not yet any maturing batch under this maturity, this amount went straight into the pile of federal debt.

Investors tendered $107.56 billion, a record high. The median yield 0f 4.58 percent is the second highest on record. 

The yield at the 20-year auction, on the other hand, was on the low side compared to resent yields. At 3.62 percent, this batch pays less than the last four months' worth of auctioned 20-year bonds. This makes January the third month in a row with falling  yield. The top, reached in October, was at 4.319 percent. 

The 20-year bond auction sold $12 billion worth of debt, same as in December. At $33.96 tendered, this auction produced a T/A of 2.83, the third highest in 34 months. This indicates that if the Treasury wanted to, it could sell quite a bit more debt under long-term maturities. 

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

U.S. Debt Cost Sets New Record

 Tuesday's Treasury auctions sold 13- and 26-week bills. In the former auction, the Treasury once again increased the debt under this maturity class, from last week's $62.86 billion to $66.46 billion. Investors were enamored, apparently, tendering $167.97 billion, an increase by $13.24 billion from last week. This came out to an increase in the T/A from 2.46 last week to 2.53. 

The median yield of 4.5 percent was almost identical to last week's 4.51, solidifying the "new high" for short-maturity Treasury securities. 

At the 26-week auction, the Treasury upped the offered volume, albeit modestly: from $52.94 billion last week to $53.17 billion. With a $9.86 billion hike in investor tender, to $133.69 billion, the T/A rose from 2.34 to 2.51. 

Here, too, the median yield stayed virtually unchanged: 4.63 percent compared to 4.64 percent last week. 

The 13-week bill is short enough to now replace maturing batches that were sold under the higher interest rates we started seeing at the end of this past summer. The maturing $63.5 billion paid $3,75 percent; the annualized increase in the debt cost was $609 million. 

The 26-week is still replacing low-yield batches: here, $48 billion matured, and with it 2.87 percent in median yield. The annualized debt cost rose by $1.084; in total, today's auction added $1.693 billion to the annualized cost of the U.S. debt. 

This increase was enough to push the average estimated interest rate on the federal government's debt to 2.25 percent, up from 2.24 percent last week. It was 2.20 percent at the beginning of the year and 1.87 percent on October 1, the start of the 2023 fiscal year. 

Interest rates in the secondary market continue to accentuate the inverted yield curve. Figure 1 reports the rates from the three most recent Tuesdays:

Figure 1

Source: U.S. Treasury

If the U.S. debt stopped rising today, the debt cost for the whole fiscal year would be an estimated $703.6 billion. This is up from $579.4 billion at the start of the year. This is a static estimate, based on the obviously unrealistic assumption that there would be no more increases in the debt for the rest of the fiscal year, and based on the equally unrealistic assumption that the debt rollover effect would stop affecting the debt cost. 

We will have a dynamic forecast of the debt cost in Friday's weekly update.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

U.S. Fiscal Forecast Weekly Update

 Behold our weekly update, focused on the Treasury's weird debt-management policies:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/fiscal-forecast-77165817

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Inverted Yield Curve Steepens Again

Three auctions on Thursday sold $135 billion in debt. The largest part, $61.04 billion, consisted of four-week bills and were sold at a median yield of 4.26 percent. With $166.53 billion offered by investors, the T/A came out to 2.73. 

The Treasury sold $55.96 billion under the 8-week maturity. Investors tendered $151.05 billion for a T/A of 2.73; the median yield landed at 4.42 percent. 

Compared to their maturing batches, these tow maturity classes added a total of $1.383 billion in annualized debt cost. 

At the third auction, the Treasury sold $18 billion worth of 30-year bonds. Investors tendered $44.11 billion (T/A=2.45) and those who went home with new securities can look forward to an annual 3.535 percent in return. 

Due to insufficient data from the Treasury, we are unable to calculate the impact on the debt cost from auctions under the 20- and 30-year maturities. 

In the secondary market, the yield curve remains negative. It has become more pronounced in the past week:

--

We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Treasury Debt Policy Is Mystifying

 On Wednesday, the Treasury sold a total of $68.63 billion of debt, with $36.63 billion going under the 17-week maturity. Investor interest in this batch was relatively speaking lower than in the past five auctions: with $100.91 billion tendered, the T/A ratio fell to 2.75, the lowest since the end of November. 

While the T/A fell, the median yield rose to another record high for this maturity: 4.625 percent. This is up from 4.51 percent last week, which at the time was the highest thus far for the 17-week bill, which has only been offered at auctions for 13 weeks so far. 

Since there was no maturing batch under this maturity class, the expected annualized increase in the debt cost equals the full annualized $1.694 billion payout for the auctioned batch.

The remaining $32 billion auctioned today, was sold in the form of 10-year notes. Attracting $80.84 billion, the 2.53 T/A, an increase from the last batch of 9-year, 10-month notes, suggests that the Treasury could have sold more debt here. That would have been wise: the median yield came out to 3.499 percent, down from 3.5-4 percent at the last three auctions.

The maturing batch of 10-years amounted to $21 billion and paid 1.82 percent. This means that today's auction added $737 million to the annualized debt cost, for a total debt-cost increase of $2.431 billion.

The strategy behind the Treasury's debt auctions remains a mystery. As of today, an estimated 16.8 percent of the debt consists of bills maturing in one year or less; 65.5 percent is notes maturing in 2-10 years; and 17.7 percent is bonds that run for 20 or 30 years. These proportions are noticeably different from three months ago, when bills only accounted for 15.1 percent of the debt and 67.1 percent consisted of notes. 

Both the secondary market and the auctions have pushed interest rates up over the past three months. The estimated average rate on the total U.S. debt has now reached 2.24 percent, up from 1.87 percent on October 1 (the start of the fiscal year). This is partly due to the rollover effect (see the 10-year auction reference above), partly the slow increase in the short-maturity share of the debt. Since the Treasury has to sell the short-maturity securities at higher rates, and since the same trend is visible in the secondary market, one has to ask why the Treasury is doing this. Why are they not taking more advantage of the relatively moderate rates on long-maturity securities?

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Another Debt Cost Record

Only one auction was held on Tuesday. The Treasury sold $40 billion worth of 3-year notes, exactly the same amount as in December. This auction attracted $113.58 billion in tender from investors, up from $102.06 billion last month. This pushed the T/A up from 2.55 to 2.84, the highest tender-accept ratio for the 3-year maturity class in at least three years. 

Consistent with how market forces would operate under excess-demand conditions, the rising T/A is combined with a drop in the median yield, which fell from 4.03 percent last week to 3.93 percent. This is the second month in a row where the 3-year note auction has sold at a lower yield—the November auction closed at 4.54—but the rollover effect nevertheless pushed the debt cost up: 

• The maturing batch of $39.2 billion 3-year notes yielded 1.54 percent, costing the Treasury $604 million a year;
• The $40 billion batch sold today, with a 3.93 percent median yield, has an estimated annualized cost of $1.572 billion.

In other words, the debt cost rose by $968 million.

The rise in yield was enough to push the estimated interest rate of of the U.S. debt to 2.23 percent. It was 1.87 percent at the start of the current fiscal year. 

Interest rates on the secondary market for Treasury securities went up across the board today. The 1-month now yields 4.41 percent, the highest so far this fiscal year. All maturities from three months to a year pay more than 4.7 percent, while every maturity three years and up yield less than four percent. 

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Inverted Yield Curve Grows Stronger

There are no macroeconomic reasons for interest rates to rise on U.S. sovereign-debt markets, but they do. At Monday's auction on 13-week bills, the Treasury sold $62.86 billion worth of debt, attracting $154.73 billion in tender offers (T/A=2.46). This batch of three-month debt sold at a median yield of 4.51 percent, the highest rate since the start of the fiscal year. 

The rate on this maturity class remained around 4.2 percent for six weeks, through the holidays, until last week's auction pushed it up to 4.33 percent. Today's yield marked a jump comparable to the increases that took place 3-4 months ago, when rates generally started pushing into four-percent territory.

Due to the high yield on today's batch of 13-week debt, the auction raised the annualized cost of the debt by $680 million. The reason is entirely in the rise of the yield: from 3.42 percent on the maturing $63 billion to 4.52 percent on the new $62.86 billion. This debt-cost increase marks an acceleration compared to last three auctions, when the annualized cost hike has been $640 million.

The 26-week bill auction produced similar results. The $52.94 billion sold attracted $123.83 billion from investors (T/A=2.34) with a median yield of 4.64 percent. Since the maturing batch of $47.6 billion came with a yield of 2.625 percent, the auction's increase in the debt cost of $1.207 billion is attributable predominantly to a significant increase in the interest rate. 

Here, again, the rise in the interest rate marks the end of a multi-week stability. Rates at 26-week auctions were stable around 4.5 percent for six weeks, until last week it rose to 4.58 percent. Today's 4.64 percent is high enough to cause an acceleration in the increase in the debt cost. Last week, the annualized increase was $1.128 billion; the week before $1.088 billion.

The higher rates at these auctions reflect an ongoing trend in the secondary market for U.S. debt, namely a sharpening inverted yield curve. In Figure 1 below, the dark green line represents yields as of January 9, with two earlier dates included for comparison:

Figure 1

Source: U.S. Treasury

One possible explanation for this is that investors are trying to secure a reasonably high yield for the long term, abandoning short-term securities where the market is more speculative by nature. However, if this is the case in the secondary market, it does not appear to be the case at auctions. If it were, the tender-to-accept ratios for both the 13- and the 26-week bills would be plummeting. They are not.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

U.S. Fiscal Forecast Weekly Update

Here is our weekly update, where we point to the role that the inverted yield curve plays in signaling a fiscal crisis:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/fiscal-forecast-76851540

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

Short Bills Above 4 Percent

Yields rose again in Thursday's auctions. The Treasury sold $92.28 billion split evenly between the 4- and 8-week maturities. The former attracted $126.8 billion in tenders, while the latter received only $101.4 billion. 

The 4-week yield rose from last week's 3.65 percent to four percent flat, a new high for this maturity. The same happened in the 8-week auction, where the median yield landed at 4.32 percent. This is its second week in a row above the four-percent threshold. 

While marginal in size, these two auctions nudged the estimated average yield on the U.S. debt up another percentage point, to 2.22 percent. 

The upward trend in short-term bills is a bit concerning, as it reinforces the overall inverted yield curve that the U.S. economy is currently living with. 

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory. 

Four-Month Auction Confirms High Yields

 Only one auction was held on Wednesday. The Treasury sold $33.83 billion worth of 17-week bills. The tender was relatively high, $103.26 billion, elevating the T/A ratio to 3.05. This is its first above three since mid-November. 

Notably, despite the high tender-to-accept ratio, the median yield landed at 4.51 percent, the highest it has been for this maturity class since it was first introduced 12 weeks ago.

Since no 17-week batch has yet matured, we cannot use this auction to track the rollover cost problem for the federal debt. We can, however, note that the yield has increased gradually over the past three months, from 4.1 percent at the first auction, via 4.275 percent eight weeks ago, to 4.48 percent last week.

The rise in auction yield is explainable in the context of what the 17-week bill pays in the secondary market. In the past four auction days, the yield has been 4.69 percent (with 4.7 yesterday). It was 4.32, on average, in the period October 19-25, its first market days. 

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory. 

U.S. Yield Curve Still Inverted

After the holidays, Treasury auctions are ramping up again. Tuesday started off the week with the 13- and 26-week auctions.

The 13-week sold $60.93 billion in debt, for which investors tendered $141.97 (T/A=2.33). At a median yield of 4.33, this auction produced the highest interest rate for this maturity class in at least 20 weeks. 

The newly auctioned batch of debt replaced $60.8 billion that matured with a yield of 3.28 percent. This adds an annualized $644 million to the cost of the U.S. debt.

At the 26-week auction, the Treasury received $130.79 billion in tender offers. Of these, $50.78 billion were accepted, producing a T/A of 2.58. The 4.58 percent median yield marked a sharp rise over the maturing $48.8 billion batch, which yielded 2.455 percent. This auction raised the annualized debt cost by $1.128 billion, for a total debt-cost hike of $1.774 billion.

In the secondary market, we have seen a trend upward in rates on the 4-week bill, but interest rates have risen on most maturities. The pause in rate hikes in December appears to be broken. 

The inverted yield curve remains unchanged:

Figure 1

Source: U.S. Treasury

With today's auctions, raising the median yield on two frequently traded maturity classes, our model over the U.S. debt estimates that the annual interest rate on the debt now stands at 2.21 percent. It was 1.87 percent on October 1, the start of the 2023 fiscal year.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.