Thursday, January 12, 2023

Inverted Yield Curve Steepens Again

Three auctions on Thursday sold $135 billion in debt. The largest part, $61.04 billion, consisted of four-week bills and were sold at a median yield of 4.26 percent. With $166.53 billion offered by investors, the T/A came out to 2.73. 

The Treasury sold $55.96 billion under the 8-week maturity. Investors tendered $151.05 billion for a T/A of 2.73; the median yield landed at 4.42 percent. 

Compared to their maturing batches, these tow maturity classes added a total of $1.383 billion in annualized debt cost. 

At the third auction, the Treasury sold $18 billion worth of 30-year bonds. Investors tendered $44.11 billion (T/A=2.45) and those who went home with new securities can look forward to an annual 3.535 percent in return. 

Due to insufficient data from the Treasury, we are unable to calculate the impact on the debt cost from auctions under the 20- and 30-year maturities. 

In the secondary market, the yield curve remains negative. It has become more pronounced in the past week:


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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.  

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