Consumer-price inflation, measured as the Consumer Price Index by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was 7.75 percent in October (not seasonally adjusted). This is down from 8.2 percent in September, 8.26 percent in August, and 8.52 percent in July. The top for the inflation curve was 9.06 percent in June, which in turn was the highest one-month inflation rate since November 1981.
Inflation in consumer prices for 2022 remains above its 2021 levels, although as Figure 1 reports, the difference is diminishing:
Figure 1
Source of raw data: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Consumer Price Index measures inflation in consumer prices on a year-to-year basis. An alternative measure tracks price increases—using the same index—on a year-to-date basis. Figure 2 reports CPI for the U.S. economy starting in January, respectively for 2021 and 2022:
Figure 1
Source of raw data: Bureau of Labor Statistics
On Tuesday November 15, the BLS releases its Producer Price Index for October.
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This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.
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