On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Producer Price Index numbers for September, Year over year, the PPI is up 14.3 percent, down from 15.5 percent in August and 17.2 percent in July. The September PPI rate is the lowest since February 2021.
Thursday, the BLS released its Consumer Price Index for September. Year over year, consumer prices increased 8.2 percent, down from 8.3 percent in August and 8.5 percent in July. The September CPI rate is the lowest since February this year.
Consumer prices generally trend behind producer prices by a two-month lag. The amplitude in producer-price inflation is also considerably higher than in consumer prices.
Producer price inflation has trended downward since its peak at 22.75 percent in November last year. We predict that the inflation rate will continue downward for the remainder of the year, albeit slower than thus far through 2022.
Consumer price inflation peaked in June this year at 9.1 percent. Lagging producer prices, the decline in CPI inflation will continue for the rest of this year.
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