Emerging Stability in Treasury Yields

The market for Treasury securities kept yields largely unchanged in Thursday's trade. They are only modestly higher than the average for the last week of October. Given that the bill auctions this morning resulted in very small yield movements, we conclude that the tendencies toward interest-rate stabilization that we reported a week ago appear to have been correct.

Figure 1 reports the yields from November 3, comparing them to the yields from the same day one year ago (red). The 4-month bill was not traded at that time:

Figure 1

Source: U.S. Treasury 

As of November 2, total U.S. debt amounted to $31,221.8 billion. At the average interest rate estimated by our model, the static fiscal cost of this debt amounts to $627.1 billion.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely for the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.