Monday, October 24, 2022

Another Treasury Bill Nears 4 Percent in Auction

In Monday's auction, the 13-week, or three-month Treasury bill attracted $152.4 billion in tender, 2.4 times the accepted $63.4 billion. This ratio is up from last week's 2.34, marking the second week in a row with rising T/A for this bill. Despite increased competition for the bill, the yield rose again, ending at 3.95 percent. 

More yield increases are to be expected, given that the 13-week has been closing above 4 percent in the market since Tuesday last week. Friday's trade ended at 4.09 percent (same as Thursday). 

Monday auctions also sold $50 billion worth of 6-month (26-week) bills. With a total tender of $120.3 billion, this bill sold at a T/A of 2.41. This is the lowest tender-to-accept ratio for this bill in at least six months. The median auction yield rose to 4.33, marking the third week in a row above 4 percent: last week this bill sold at 4.19, and two weeks ago at 4.03. 

The 6-month bill yielded 4.43 percent in Friday's market, down from 4.48 percent on Thursday.

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We do not give investment advice. 

This blog provides analytical information solely the purposes of 1) predicting the cost of the federal debt, and 2) for assessing the risk for a U.S. fiscal crisis. All information published here, forecasting and other, is based on publicly available data from the U.S. Treasury, including but not limited to approximately 65 percent of the current debt; on macroeconomic data, including but not limited to monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve; and on macroeconomic theory.

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